CGM Research 
Talking about workplace automation might be a little uncomfortable, but we can’t avoid it any longer. The potential cost of not talking far outweighs the difficulties in getting the conversation started.
In their March 2019 report, ‘Australia’s automation opportunity’, McKinsey & Company found that 25 to 46 per cent of Australia’s current work could be automated by 2030, impacting up to 6.5 million jobs and requiring up to five million workers to change professions. This would impact every Australian family.
We need to talk about how we handle this, because the world will not stand still. Industries globally are fervently embracing new technologies. Unless Australia pursues increased productivity, local industry will become less competitive, work will head offshore and living standards will decline.
The conversation needs to be about the specifics. We need to answer questions about what jobs are disappearing or changing, what new jobs are being created and how people can prepare for these opportunities.
Successful conversations start with getting people on the same page, but new evidence suggests this will be no small task.
In the past few years, I’ve heard countless speakers at industry events up and down St George’s Terrace assert that, like any other technological leap, automation will create more jobs than it will cost through new productivity and possibilities.
While McKinsey’s work supports this, September polling undertaken by CGM Research suggests the WA community is either not buying what industry is selling, or not even hearing the sales pitch.
Our research found that almost two thirds of West Australians thought the adoption of automation and new technologies in the workplace would lead to a net loss of jobs, with only 13 per cent thinking it would lead to a net increase in jobs. Twenty-six per cent of respondents said they or someone they knew had already lost jobs because of automation or the adoption of other new technologies.
This disconnect between St George’s Terrace optimism and the prevailing views of community members is stark. It is strongly in the interests of industry and government to get everybody aligned and bring us on the journey together.
Similar to their counterparts in other western democracies, WA’s suburban and regional voters are showing increasing volatility, driven by personal economic factors like underemployment, job insecurity and low wages growth, as well as the financial anxiety these bring.
WA Labor swept to office in 2017 with swings of up to 20 per cent in the suburbs and regions. At the 2019 federal election, similar swings were experienced in these areas towards the Liberals, via preferences from an increasing number of One Nation and Palmer voters.
Post-federal election analysis using ABS data identified low to middle income earners and people with TAFE and trade qualifications as strongly represented in areas that shifted to the Liberals. Our research confirmed the biggest vote driver was concern about the economy and jobs.
While identifying the enormous economic benefits increased productivity could deliver, McKinsey’s report also marked the dangers. It predicted Australia’s unemployment rate could spike by 2.5 per cent as the economy transitioned and warned that economic benefits would not be realised if displaced worked could not get new jobs. Without retraining impacted workers, income inequality could widen by 30 per cent.
If you think politics is volatile now, imagine it under these scenarios. The political implications for governments and policy risk for industry should be obvious. More importantly, consider the impacts on our community if large groups of people are left behind.
McKinsey identifies what can be done to prepare for this future and mitigate the risks. Much involves education and training, and some good work is already underway in WA. Rio Tinto’s partnership with the State Government to develop Australia’s first nationally accredited automation qualifications through South Metro TAFE is a case in point. This partnership identifies emerging jobs and provides pathways for training. We need to connect the dots in this way, right across the economy.
Confronting change is never comfortable. But if we want the community to have confidence as workplaces undergo a radical transformation, then industry and government need to lead a loud and continuous conversation that helps people adjust and seize the opportunities this transition will bring.
Background
- This above research was undertaken to inform the third instalment of CGM Research’s Future of Work and Democracy Series, which is exploring the impact of a range of work issues on voter volatility in Western Australia.
- The poll of 612 voters was conducted statewide between 24th-25th September, 2019.
